$7 Billion In Perfectly Timed Oil Bets Sparks Insider Trading Fears
Oil Prices Surge After Trump Rejects Iran Peace Offer Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com.
Lawmakers and analysts suspect insider leaks, but investigations by the DOJ and CFTC face challenges as prediction markets and digital betting platforms make detecting illegal trading activity increasingly difficult.
Last month, wereportedthat over $1 billion in "perfectly timed" wagers, spanning both traditional oil futures and digital prediction markets, accurately anticipated major military and diplomatic shifts linked to developments in the Iran-US war minutes before they were publicly announced, raising major suspicion of insider trading.
Many suspicious accounts were newly created and only traded on specific Iran-related events with a win rate of up to 93%.
Well, the final numbers are in, and the initial report might only have been the tip of the iceberg.While previous reports focused on ~$2.6 billion in front-month crude contracts, a broader analysis byReutershas revealed that total wagers, including bets on Brent, WTI, European diesel, and U.S.
According to an analysis by Reuters, the giant bets were executed in large blocks on four specific days, often 15 to 20 minutes before announcements that triggered double-digit declines in oil prices.
The first giant trade was executed on March 23 around 10:49–10:50 GMT, roughly 15-20 minutes before an 11:05 GMT announcement on Truth Social by President Trump, which stated a delay to planned strikes on Iranian power and energy infrastructure.
The announcement followed a period of intense volatility in the Strait of Hormuz, with the delay intended to allow for negotiations.
According to LSEG data cited byReuters, traders executed positions on 20,000 lots of Brent and WTI futures, along with additional gasoline and gasoil futures, totaling roughly $2.2 billion.
Related: Iran Seizes Sanctioned Oil Tanker in Gulf of Oman The announcement triggered an oil price crash, with crude futures falling by as much as 15%, marking one of the largest intraday drops on record.
The second major trade took place on April 7 whereby sell orders on oil and gasoline futures totalling approximately $2.12 billion were executed in a single minute, immediately before a surprise announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S.
The trades occurred while the market was in a thin-volume, post-settlement phase, with crude futures plummeting by roughly 15% to below $100 a barrel by the start of the next trading session.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | ▲ +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | ▲ +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | ▲ +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | ▲ +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | ▼ -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | ▲ +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | ▼ -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | ▲ +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | ▼ -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | ▲ +0.92% |
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