Bernstein Sets Long-Term Oil Price Target At $75 Per Barrel
Bernstein Sets Long-Term Oil Price Target At $75 Per Barrel Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com.
Wall Street analyst Bernstein Research hasestablished$75 per barrel as a reasonable long-term oil price target for equity valuations, pointing to rising marginal costs and declining reserves.
Citing a new survey of the 50 largest energy companies globally, Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge has revealed that higher spot prices and a tightening physical market continue to feed inflation back into the supply chain.
This will negatively impact production costs, with the global marginal cost of oil now projected to climb to $77 per barrel, after declining 2% to $69 per barrel in 2025 due to lower production expenses.
The analyst notes that the industry's average reserve life has fallen to a 20-year low of 10.4 years, which is significantly below the historical average of 13 years.
This lack of long-term supply buffer offers a structurally bullish floor for crude prices.
Meanwhile, the global industry reinvestment ratio has climbed to 61%, recovering from its 36% trough in 2022.
However, reinvestments remain well below the historical 80% to 90% average.
The industry is reinvesting less cash into new exploration and production compared to historical averages, thanks to its cautious outlook on long-term demand, in large part due to the ongoing clean energy transition.
This lower reinvestment rate and shrinking reserve life could create periods of market tightness and higher spot prices.
The EV revolution is the backbone of the clean energy transition.
The International Energy Agency recentlyreportedthat global electric car sales grew by 20% to 20.7 million units in 2025—meaning that one-quarter of all new cars sold worldwide were electric.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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