Canada Rethinks Selling Its Crown Jewel Pipeline
China's Gasoline Consumption Could Plunge 5.5% in 2026 as Oil Prices Surge The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline and keep it state-owned amid a surge in appetite for Canadian crude to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels.
“The prior narrative had been that this should be returning to private hands,” the head of the government entity that owns Trans Mountain said at an event this week, as quoted by the Financial Post.
“That was in a different market and that was in a different time,” Elizabeth Wademan also said.
Indeed, this is a very different market from what it was when the government in Ottawa had to step in and buy Trans Mountain from Kinder Morgan, which quit the project under relentless pressure from climate activists who used environmental regulations to strangle the expansion project.
The price tag for the nationalization deal, whichtook placein 2018, was about $3.3 billion, and the Trudeau government quickly signaled it would start looking for buyers as soon as possible.
By 2024, the cost of the pipeline expansion project had swelled to about $23 billion, but the project, somewhat surprisingly, was completed, and the expanded pipeline launched in May of that year, running at three times its original capacity or a total of 890,000 barrels daily.Related: China's Gasoline Consumption Could Plunge 5.5% in 2026 as Oil Prices Surge The destination for these barrels was the vast Asian market, as a way to diversify away from the U.S., which has for decades been pretty much the only foreign market for Canadian crude—and an export conduit, with the oil transported from Canada to the U.S.
Gulf Coast, and from there, to markets overseas.
With the new TMX, Canadian crude producers got a new, more convenient channel to Asian energy buyers.
It did not take long for the effect to be felt: between the launch of the expanded pipe and spring 2025, the average flow rates for shipment to China reached 207,000 barrels daily.
That compares with an average of 173,000 barrels daily pumped to the United States.
Since spring, the shift has become even more marked.
By October 2025, as much as 70% of Canadian crude exported from the British Columbia coast was going to China.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | ▲ +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | ▲ +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | ▲ +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | ▲ +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | ▼ -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | ▲ +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | ▼ -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | ▲ +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | ▼ -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | ▲ +0.92% |
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