China’s Oil Buying Pause Won’t Last Forever
Kansas Fed Pres Warns Oil Price Shock Might Not Be Transitory Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.
China has been cited as an example of a country that has managed to insulate itself relatively well against oil crises.
With over a billion barrels in estimated inventories before the war in the Middle East started, China was the poster child of forward planning in energy security.
But this could change, and if it does, it would make an already severe crisis even worse.
Kplersounded the alarmabout that prospect earlier this month, reporting that Chinese refiners have reduced their purchases of oil from overseas because of the price surge caused by the war between the U.S.
and Israel and Iran, effectively reducing China's role as a participant in international price-setting.
Indeed, per Kpler, Chinese oil imports have fallen more substantially than refiners’ run rates amid the energy price jump, suggesting they were relying more on oil from inventories.
But demand is not falling fast or sharply enough—and this means China may have to start importing more again, which would lead to a sharp, possibly unpleasant price correction given the overwhelming bearish sentiment that still grips oil markets.Related: Supermajor Warns Oil Prices Could Hit $160 Within Weeks China’s crude oil imports this month are estimated at 6.78 million barrels per day, Kpler’s senior crude oil analyst Muyu Xu reported this week.
This would be the lowest monthly oil import figure in close to ten years and a sharp drop from April’s 8.5 million barrels daily.
For more context, Kpler’s analyst noted that China’s average daily oil import rate last year was 10.66 million barrels.
About a million barrels per day of that 2025 average went into storage, which is now being drawn to satisfy domestic fuel demand and exports.
Refinery rates in the country are averaging 13.5 million barrels daily, Kpler’s Muyu said, which is down by 154,000 barrels daily from April and also down by over 1.9 million barrels daily from 2025.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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