Oil Market Report - March 2026
The March edition of the IEA’sOil Market Reportis exceptionally provided free of charge.For access to the full report, subscribers can visit theirProductspage.
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries.
The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
With crude and oil product flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunging from around 20 mb/d before the war to a trickle currently, limited capacity available to bypass the crucial waterway, and storage filling up, Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d.
In the absence of a rapid resumption of shipping flows, supply losses are set to increase.
Global oil supply is projected to plunge by 8 mb/d in March, with curtailments in the Middle East partly offset by higher output from non-OPEC+ producers, Kazakhstan and Russia following disruptions at the start of the year.
While the extent of losses will depend on the duration of the conflict and disruptions to flows, we estimate global oil supply to rise by 1.1 mb/d in 2026 on average, with non-OPEC+ producers accounting for the entire increase.
The conflict is also having a significant impact on global product markets, with export flows through the Strait at a near standstill.
Gulf producers exported 3.3 mb/d of refined products and 1.5 mb/d of LPG in 2025.
More than 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the region has already shut due to attacks and a lack of viable export outlets.
Runs elsewhere will be increasingly limited due to feedstock availability.
IEA Member countries unanimously agreed on 11 March to make 400 mb of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to address disruptions stemming from the war in the Middle East.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $101.14/bbl | ▲ +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $95.90/bbl | ▲ +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $800/MT | ▲ +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1100/MT | ▲ +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | ▼ -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $4600/MT | ▲ +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $570/MT | ▼ -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $750/MT | ▲ +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $450/MT | ▼ -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $14.42/MMBtu | ▲ +0.92% |
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