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TheS&P 500(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)has added 6% year to date and currently trades near its record high.
That momentum has been driven by strong earnings growth in recent quarters, which itself has been supported by prodigious investments in artificial intelligence.
However, investors may be overestimating the stock market's resilience.
President Trump's tariffs and military operations in Iran pose serious threats to the U.S.
Last week,Moody'schief economist Mark Zandi said, "We'd likely be in a recession already if not for the AI investment-driven boom." Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need.Continue » Trump's decision to strike Iran in late February has spiraled into the largest oil supply disruption in history, per the International Energy Agency.
The conflict has not only closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route in the Persian Gulf, but it has also damaged infrastructure.
Ramping up oil flows to pre-war levels could take months.
Meanwhile, energy prices have increased dramatically.
Brent Crude oil, an international benchmark, currently costs $110 per barrel, up 80% since January.
And the average price per gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S.
is $4.45, up 60% since January, according to the Energy Information Administration.
CPI inflationhit 3.3% in March, the highest level since April 2024, and will likely accelerate further as elevated energy prices percolate the economy by raising transportation and manufacturing costs.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | ▲ +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | ▲ +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | ▲ +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | ▲ +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | ▼ -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | ▲ +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | ▼ -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | ▲ +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | ▼ -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | ▲ +0.92% |
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