A Barrel Trapped Behind Hormuz Isn't Spare Capacity
Kuwait Says Oil Output Won't Recover for 10-12 Weeks After Hormuz Reopens Analysts warn record inventory drawdowns,… Jan-Thore is a Norwegian oil and gas expert with two decades of industry experience across a variety of roles.
For the past five years, he… At the start of 2026, oil traders were preparing for aglut.
Supply growth was expected to outpace demand growth.
OPEC+ was gradually returning barrels to the market.
Economic growth was slowing, while electrification and efficiency gains were expected to temper consumption growth.
The consensus view was simple: the world was heading into a period of excess supply.
Six months later, that narrative never came true.
Not because the world suddenly ran out of oil.
In fact, many major producers are pumping more crude than they were a year ago.
production remainsnear record levels, OPEC members still hold significant spare capacity, and non-OPEC producers continue to add barrels.
Yet inventoriescontinue to draw, supply security remains a major concern, and the market has proven far more sensitive to geopolitical disruptions than many expected.
The reason is that the market may have been asking the wrong question.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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