Ceasefire Caps Oil Rally as China Demand Weakens
Kuwait Offers First Crude Cargoes to Asia since Iran War Started Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… Supertankers Are Back in Fashion as Hormuz Risk Rewrites Oil Trade - The US-Iran crisis has engendered a shipbuilding boom, with the global orderbook for supertankers soaring to an all-time high as shippers race to lock in Very Large Crude Carriers (or VLCCs) for 2029-2030 delivery.
- There are currently 262 VLCCs on order at shipyards around the world, surpassing the previous record posted in September 2008 (254), with orders jumping by a whopping 99 since the beginning of 2026.
- Some 10% of the world’s non-sanctioned VLCC fleet remains locked up in the Persian Gulf, wary of transiting the Strait of Hormuz, alerting shippers to the geopolitical risks inherent in oil trading.
- Simultaneously, market prices for second-hand tankers have been shooting through the roof, with 10-year-old VLCCs now going for $115 million, the highest since 2008.
- Whilst the rejuvenation of the global VLCC fleet (on average 14.1 years) is definitely a welcome development, the flurry of VLCCs coming into the market by the 2030s couldforeshadowa very challenging freight market throughout the next decade.Market Movers - US oil majorChevron(NYSE:CVX) hasappliedto join Argentina’s RIGI tax incentive regime for its $13.8 billion unconventional El Trapial project in the Vaca Muerta shale play, potentially becoming one of the largest investments in the country.- Global trading houseMercuriahasboughtthe Argentina downstream business of Brazil’s Raizen for $1.42 billion, taking over the Latin America’s country second-largest fuel distribution network.- Italian oil majorENI(BIT:ENI) has signed an exploration and development agreement with the Gambia for offshore block A1, five years after BP gave up on exploring the country amidst COVID-19 turmoil.
- Brazil’s state oil companyPetrobras(NYSE:PBR) has beengrantedthe right to develop 8 offshore blocks in the West African country of Côte d’Ivoire, covering most of its ultra-deepwater acreage.- US LNG developerGlenfarnehasuppedits price estimate for the 20 mtpa Alaska LNG project from the previous $44 billion to $55 billion, with the cost of the liquefaction terminal assessed at $24-28 billion.Tuesday, June 09, 2026 The sudden escalation in Israeli and Iranian missile attacks and the subsequent Trump-brokered (temporary) cessation of hostilities has prevented another breakout in crude prices, with ICE Brent continuing to linger around $92 per barrel.
Fears of demand destruction are increasingly coming to the forefront, with Chinese buying activity falling into the summer months, traditionally a period of peak demand for the Asian continent.
OPEC+ Is the Group That Keeps on Giving.The seven remaining members of OPEC+ rubberstamped another 188,000 b/dproductionhike for July, the fourth straight monthly.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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