Goldman Sachs Sees Strong Refining Profits Through 2026 Amid Fuel Supply Crunch
Goldman Sachs Sees Strong Refining Profits Through 2026 Amid Fuel Supply Crunch U.S.-Iran negotiations over reopening the… Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.
Tighter petroleum product supply resulting from the Strait of Hormuz crisis will keep refining margins significantly higher throughout 2026, Goldman Sachs has forecast, with diesel margins especially elevated, Reutersreported.
The war in the Middle East has pushed refiners’ margins two to three times higher than the average for the period from 2013 to 2019, the investment bank’s commodity analysts said in a note this week.
Diesel margins specifically are seen at between $19 and $26 per barrel higher than they were before March.
“We expect gasoline and especially diesel stocks to decline further in the initial Hormuz reopening stage as demand likely recovers more quickly than refined product supply,” the analysts said.
The forecast is prompted by refinery outages in both the Middle East and Russia—two major fuel exporters.
According to the bank, global exports of refined petroleum products are down by 4 million barrels daily from pre-war levels, with lower Asian refinery output also contributing to war-related refinery damage.
In the Middle East alone, the drop in output was estimated at 2.5 million barrels daily.
Gulf states suffered refinery outages amid the U.S.
and Israeli war with Iran, while Russian refineries have become the go-to targets for Ukrainian drone attacks.
Both conflicts have hurt production, with Reuters recentlyestimatingRussian diesel output fell by 10% last month after another 10% drop in April as a result of the attacks, tightening an already tight market further.
The country earlier this weekinstituteda ban on jet fuel exports until November.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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