Hormuz Reopens as Traders Price Out the War Premium
EV Adoption Slows While Global Demand Accelerates Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… The U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen Hormuz and lift the maritime blockade has pushed oil below $80, though risks remain if tensions in Lebanon escalate.
-China’s crude throughput has plunged by a hefty 9.1% year-over-year to 12.7 million b/d, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics, marking one of the most substantial instances of demand destruction on the heels of the US-Iran conflict.
- Refinery runs in China plunged to their lowest since April 2022, depressed by negative refining margins and the still ongoing product export ban, despite Beijing enticing its downstream sector with a new product export quota last week.
- China’s seaborne crude imports in June to date suggests that May’s multi-year lows might not be the end of the tunnel, as inflows to Chinese ports dropped by another 600,000 b/d month-over-month to 6 million b/d.- Even if at a relatively slow pace, China has finally started to draw down its giant 1.3-billion-barrel crude inventory, with Kpler data showing current stocks almost 20 million barrels lower than two months ago.
- Meanwhile, China’s retail salescontractedfor the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, down 0.6% from a year ago, indicating that Chinese consumer spending is reactive to energy-driven spikes.
- US LNG developerVenture Global(NYSE:VG) has filed itsapplicationwith the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to build an 11.7 mtpa expansion at its 28 mtpa Calcasieu Pass 2 terminal in Louisiana.
- Libya's National Oil Corporation has finalized three upstream deal with Spain'sRepsol(BME:REP) and Italy'sENI(BIT:ENI), pushing ahead for exploration in the offshore block 07 as well as onshore blocks 01 and 07.
- Norway's state oil companyEquinor(NYSE:EQNR) haspledgedto double its share buybacks thanks to windfall profits from the US-Iran conflict, hiking them up from $1.5 billion projected in February to a 2026 target of $3 billion.
- US oil majorChevron(NYSE:CVX) hasreachedan agreement with Helleniq Energy to acquire a 70% stake in Greece’s Block 10 offshore hydrocarbon block, to the west of the Peloponnese peninsula.- Hungary’s national oil firmMOL(BPSE:MOL) said it hadagreedwith Serbia to buy its national oil company NIS, receiving a 15-day approval extension from OFAC to conclude the deal with Russia’s Gazprom Neft.Tuesday, June 16, 2026 The US-Iran deal providing for the immediate re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US maritime blockade on Iran has been signed by US President Trump, Vice President Vance and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Qalibaf, sending Brent futures below $80 per barrel for the first time in more than 4 months.
Unless derailed by another Israeli attack on Lebanon, oil markets could finally leave the conflict behind and ‘let the oil flow.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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