Inside The Iran Deal That May Change Nothing — But Could Smash Oil Prices Anyway
Russia Bans Jet Fuel Exports as Ukrainian Attacks Cripple Refining Simon Watkins is a former senior FX trader and salesman, financial journalist, and best-selling author.
He was Head of Forex Institutional Sales and Trading for… After more than three months of fighting and stop-start negotiations, Washington and Tehran are now reportedly on the verge of a deal that would end the conflict.
However, according to well-placed sources in Washington, Tehran, and London exclusively spoken to in the past few days byOilPrice.com, the sound and fury of the past few weeks may ultimately amount to a tale of sound and fury signifying nothing.
“It’s pretty likely that we’ll [the U.S.] wind up with the same sort of deal we had in the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or colloquially ‘the nuclear deal’], although maybe we might lose a bit while Iran gains something,” a Washington-based figure who works closely with the U.S.
Treasury’s legal operations told OilPrice.com over the weekend.
So, what is the outlook for the peace deal, and what will happen to energy prices afterwards? From the U.S.
perspective, President Donald Trump laid out the four objectives he wanted to achieve with the U.S.
war against Iran and its proxies at the beginning of the conflict back in February, and these were fully agreed upon by his cabinet at the time.
The first (in the order in which he said them), was to make it impossible for Iran to build a nuclear arsenal.
The second was to degrade and destroy its missile stockpiles and production capabilities.
And the fourth was to end Tehran’s financing and arming of its proxies.
So, to what degree have these war aims been achieved? First, on the key issue of Iran’s nuclear programme, its Fordow fuel enrichment plant was ‘rendered inoperable’, according to the U.S.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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