More Than 60 Million Barrels of Oil Ready to Head to Asia as Hormuz Reopens
More Than 60 Million Barrels of Oil Ready to Head to Asia as Hormuz Reopens Financial markets are increasingly pricing… What I Cover Tsvetana Paraskova is an energy and commodities journalist who has contributed to Oilprice.com for nearly a decade, covering global energy markets, commodities,… Crude cargo arrivals in Asia from the Middle East could accelerate in the coming weeks as more than 60 million barrels of oil stuck in the Persian Gulf prepare to exit the Strait of Hormuz and head to Asian markets once the chokepoint reopens to traffic.
About 62 million barrels of crude oil on nearly three dozen supertankers are expected to make their way to Asia within weeks after the Strait reopens, according to Signal Group data carried byBloomberg.
Asia, which felt the supply shock first and the most as early as in March, could now see a wave of much-delayed crude supply that would weigh on prices.
Refiners in Asia, including China,have slashedrun rates in response to the loss of supply from the Middle East and the high prices to procure alternative cargoes.
The supply waiting to exit the Strait of Hormuz could prompt some refiners to increase processing rates or opt for replenishing commercial stock tanks that have been drawn down over the past three months.
Asia, however, appears to have stocked up on enough supply at least for June and July after turning to West Africa and South and North America to offset the losses from the Middle East.
Asian refiners are well-supplied for the coming weeks, anonymous traders with knowledge of the situation told Bloomberg.
The expected imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has prompted investment banks toslash their oil price forecastsfor this year and next.
Morgan Stanley, for example, now seesBrent crudeaveraging $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the third quarter.
The bank’s earlier forecast was for an average of $100 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter, while the fourth-quarter price forecast was unchanged.
Goldman Sachscutits price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel from $90 per barrel, and the 2027 average forecast for Brent crude to $75 per barrel from $80 in earlier forecasts.
According to the bank’s commodity analysts, tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz would recover fully by the end of July.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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