Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Forecast to $75 a Barrel
Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Forecast to $75 a Barrel What I Cover Tsvetana Paraskova is an energy and commodities journalist who has contributed to Oilprice.com for nearly a decade, covering global energy markets, commodities,… Morgan Stanley has slashed its oil price forecasts for the next 18 month as it expects the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to accelerate a new supply glut.
The return of oil supply from the Middle East, combined with high U.S.
oil exports and still weak Chinese crude purchases, will bring the market full-circle to a new glut in the coming months, according to the bank’s analysts, who slashed their oil price projections for the second time in two weeks.
Morgan Stanley now expects Dated Brent to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter this year, a downward revision of $15 a barrel from the previous forecast, in a note cited byBloomberg.
The average Dated Brent price, the benchmark for physical transactions, is set to average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter, too, according to the analysts.
This is $5 a barrel lower compared to the previous projection from the middle of June, when Morgan Stanley and other major investment banksslashed their price forecastsafter the U.S.
and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to negotiate a deal within 60 days.
SetOilPrice.comas a preferred source in Googlehere.
Morgan Stanley now expects a Dated Brent price of $70 per barrel at the end of 2027.
“As attention turns to 2027, the market has come full circle – back to surplus,” the bank’s analysts wrote in the note.
Separately, Goldman Sachs has cut its price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel from $90 per barrel, and the 2027 average forecast for Brent crude to $75 per barrel from $80 in earlier forecasts.
According to the bank’s commodity analysts, tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz would recover fully by the end of July.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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