Oil Prices Are Up. Investment Isn't Following
Hormuz Shutdown Forces Malaysia to Overhaul Crude Supply Chain What I Cover Irina Slav has been writing about global energy markets since 2007, covering the oil and gas industry, energy security, commodities, and the… When the International Energy Agencyissuedits 2026 outlook on energy investment, it had a surprise for its audience, predicting a decline in oil investment, instead of an increase, as the current price environment would suggest.
The IEA is not the only one making counterintuitive predictions.
BMI justpublisheda forecast on oil and gas spending this year, and it says the total will decline from 2025.
Oil prices and investment trends are no longer in sync.
Spending on oil and gas globally is set to amount to $636 billion, BMI said in its report, noting this would represent a modest dip of 0.5% on 2025.
Yet prices for both oil and gas are currently substantially higher than the 2025 average: $69 per barrel for Brent crude and a bit over $65 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate.
Still, this has not really prompted plans for a surge in new investment.
With oil and gas prices becoming increasingly detached from the physical balance between demand and supply, and more dependent on social media posts by global leaders and trader moods, the energy industry has a much shorter horizon to the future than it did in the past.
Climate-related policies also contribute to this uncertainty, further discouraging bold investment decisions.
Like other forecasters, BMI noted that despite the allure of higher prices, oil and gas producers had chosen to stick to financial discipline rather than going on a drilling rampage.
Yet the market research agency noted that most of the investment to be made in oil and gas would focus on upstream projects, securing long-term supply from existing fields, aiming at high-certainty returns rather than taking big risks.Related: Solar Tops Coal in U.S.
Power Mix for the First Month Ever The war in the Middle East, according to BMI will take its toll on oil and gas investment, as some projects get delayed due to the hostilities.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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