OPEC’s Oil Demand Bet Is on India, Not Europe
OPEC’s Oil Demand Bet Is on India, Not Europe Global energy-efficiency gains have stalled… What I Cover Julianne Geiger is a veteran energy journalist and market analyst with more than a decade of experience covering the global oil and… Every year, OPEC releases a long-term outlook that says oil demand will keep growing.
In its World Oil Outlook 2026, the producer group said global oil demand will climb from 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025 to 113.3 million bpd by 2030 and top 124 million bpd by 2050.
More importantly, OPEC says there is still no peak oil demand in sight.
That's a bold claim in a world where EV sales dominate headlines, governments continue talking about net-zero targets, and energy transition advocates have spent years forecasting oil's slow decline.
But buried inside OPEC's latest outlook is an argument that's harder to dismiss than the forecast itself.
The organization is essentially saying that the peak-demand crowd has become obsessed with what is happening in rich countries while ignoring what is happening almost everywhere else.
Much of the conversation around oil demand revolves around EV adoption in Europe, California, and China.
OPEC's outlook is based on a much simpler observation: billions of people outside the OECD still want cars, air conditioning, air travel, consumer goods, and reliable electricity.
India alone is expected to add more than 8 million barrels per day of oil demand by 2050.
Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the rest of developing Asia are expected to contribute most of the remaining growth.
In other words, OPEC isn't betting on Berlin, it's betting on Bangalore.
The report also throws cold water on another favorite assumption of the transition narrative: that electric vehicles will quickly eliminate oil demand.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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