The Real Reason BP Is Retreating From the North Sea
Israel and Hezbollah Truce Gives Oil Markets a Reason to Pause Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence provider offering global databases, strategic advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers,… BP is still considering a sale of all or part of its UK upstream portfolio, which could fetch around £2 billion ($2.7 billion), though talks of a sale to Ithaca Energy fell through earlier this month, according to reports by Bloomberg and the Financial Times.
A sale would fit the group’s strategic direction, and the company is an outlier in the UK, where other majors have either sold down or formed joint ventures.
At the same time, BP has been pushing aggressively on the exploration front since its strategy reset in early 2025 – with activity in the US, Brazil and elsewhere filling the UK major’s hopper in the years ahead.
Rystad Energy views both moves as consistent pillars of the same strategic bet as the company shifts attention to regions with greater growth potential than the UK, where no exploration wells were drilled last year for the first time since 1964.
To reduce its UK exposure, the company could also opt to form a pure-play joint venture rather than pursue an outright sale – a structure that would preserve production optionality while still delivering consolidation benefits.
The case for selling the UK upstream portfolio A UK sale would help BP reach its $20 billion divestment target by the end of 2027.
The company sold off assets worth $5.3 billion in 2025 and guides another $9–10 billion in 2026.
Although BP’s first-quarter 2026 net income more than doubled quarter-on-quarter to $3.2 billion, net debt jumped 14% to $25.3 billion.
BP is the only remaining major among the top 10 UK producers, making the company a notable outlier as NEO NEXT+ and Adura, both pure-play joint ventures part-owned by majors, now rank first and second by production.
BP’s sale last year of its 32% stake in Culzean, the largest UK gas field by production at around 75,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), indicates that the company may be willing to sell the entire portfolio.
We estimate the production impact at around 60,000 boepd if the portfolio is sold, against BP’s 2030 output target of 2.3–2.5 million boepd.
We value BP’s UK upstream portfolio at $3.4 billion unrisked.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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