Traders Question How Much Iranian Oil Can Really Return to Market
Europe’s Top Gas Distributor to Invest $14.8 Billion in AI-Backed Networks Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… US-Iran talks and a 60-day sanctions waiver have eased supply fears, but traders remain cautious on the outlook for Iranian oil exports.
From War Shock to Weather Shock: Super El Niño Threatens Fresh Commodity Chaos -Record high sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean arepavingthe way for an unprecedentedly severe ‘Super’ El Niño, with equatorial temperatures currently 1.7C above the 30-year average.
- This summer would witness the largest temperature deviation from the historical average for the month of June since 1981.
- The previous El Niño in 2023-2024 led to the tripling of cocoa prices after the failure of West African harvest, with 10-15% increases recorded in wheat, corn, sugar, rice and coffee prices.
- Asian buyers of LNG have started to boost their imports ahead of peak July-August cooling demand, with China expecting its national peak power demand to surpass 1,600 GW this summer, some 90 GW above previous record levels.
- A harbinger of shortages to come for the soft commodities, a ‘Super’ El Niño is at the same time positive for US oil producers as it greatly reduces the risk ofhurricanesin the Atlantic Basin.
- US oil majorExxonMobil(NYSE:XOM) willre-domicilefrom New Jersey to Texas effective 1 July 2026, the end of a 37-year gradual relocation to its operational base in the Lone Star State.
- Saudi national oil companySaudi Aramco(TADAWUL:2222) is reportedlyseekingto divest a stake in its sulphur business, expecting to garner some $7 billion as it remains the world’s largest sulphur exporter.
- London-based global energy giantShell(LON:SHEL) has signed a memorandum of understanding with Gabon for a deepwater exploration block in the African country, marking its return to the country after a 7-year pause.
- US exploration firmMurphy Oil(NYSE:MUR)announcedan offshore discovery Cote d’Ivoire with its Bubale-1X exploration well, encountering 30 meters of net pay some 40 miles off the country’s coast.
-Azule Energy, the joint venture of ENI and BP in Angola,announcedthe final investment decision on the Greater PAJ offshore project, with first oil from the 5 offshore fields in Blocks 31 and 31/21 expected in H1 2029.Tuesday, June 23, 2026 This week’s US-Iran talks, the first organized attempt of the two sides to move beyond the current transitional ceasefire period, have eased the market’s concerns about global supply disruptions, with ICE Brent edging slightly lower to $77-78 per barrel.
Trump’s announced 60-day waiver on all Iranian crude and product exports has failed to trigger a price collapse, with market participants still wondering if there’s enough risk appetite (and buying interest) from non-Chinese refiners.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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