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(Bloomberg) -- For decades, oil traders, executives and analysts warned that closing the Strait of Hormuz would be a global economic catastrophe.
Trump Says He, Not Congress, Is in Charge of Kennedy Center in Reversal Why Oil’s Not at $200 After the Biggest Supply Shock in History Becerra Advances for California Governor as Hilton Fights Steyer SpaceX Inks $30 Billion Computing Power Deal With Google US Forces See Nearly 1,000 Hormuz Crossings Since Ceasefire It’s now been more than three months since the waterway was effectively blocked, creating the worst supply shock in modern history.
But a slew of workarounds is keeping crude oil below $100 a barrel, defying many of the industry’s grimmest forecasts for prices as high as $200.
A combination of record US exports, a sharp and unexpected slowdown in Chinese demand and a steady trickle of crude still finding its way through the strait has helped absorb much of the shock from the loss of more than 10 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern supply.
A pre-war surplus has also eased the blow.
“People thought it was going to be a lot worse,” President Donald Trump said Friday.
“Today I looked at $96 a barrel, people thought that was going to be $300 a barrel.” All eyes now are on how long those buffers can hold, while the question of when flows might resume through the strait, and where oil prices are headed, have become the biggest wild cards for the global economy.
One of the biggest surprises for the oil market has been China, the world’s largest importer.
It slashed inbound shipments by almost 40% in May compared to last year’s average, according to Vortexa Ltd.
The reduction is enough to offset anywhere between a third and a fifth of the barrels lost to the war, depending on the estimates used.
At the same time, the US has emerged as the world’s most important swing supplier since launching strikes on Iran in late February.
American crude and fuel exports in May were more than 2 million barrels a day higher than the average for all of last year.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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