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USO surged ~98% in 2026 while SPY gained just 11%, turning a $10,000 investment into roughly $19,800 versus $11,140.
A Strait of Hormuz blockade slashed OPEC+ output by nearly 8 million b/d in Q2 2026, creating the supply shock that launched crude prices.
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If you put $10,000 intoUnited States Oil Fund(NYSEARCA:USO) on the last trading day of 2025, when it closed at $69.16, you were sitting on roughly $19,800 by the close on June 2, 2026, with USO at $137.27.
The same $10,000 inSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(NYSEARCA:SPY) would be worth about $11,140, since SPY went from $681.92 to $759.57 over the same window.
The other did what the S&P 500 normally does in a decent year, packed into five months.
The headline rounded both down a touch, which is fine.
Crude was the trade in 2026, and the equity index that everyone benchmarks to barely registered the move.
USO is a commodity pool that holds near-month West Texas Intermediate futures and rolls them forward as each contract approaches expiry, distinct from both equity energy funds and spot crude.
That distinction matters because the spot price of WTI itself rose from $57.21 on January 2, 2026 to $97.63 on May 26, 2026, a YTD gain of 70.6%.
USO returned more than that, which tells you the futures curve was in backwardation for much of the run, meaning the front-month contract traded above later-dated contracts and each roll added a small tailwind rather than a drag.
When oil is screaming higher on supply fear, that is exactly the curve shape you get, and it is the friend of any fund forced to roll month after month.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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