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The dollar index (DXY00) climbed to a 13-month high today and is up by +0.33%. The dollar is finding support from today's plunge in equity markets, which is boosting liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar also has carryover support from last Wednesday, when the FOMC projected higher interest rates later this year.
Today's US economic news was mixed for the dollar as the Jun S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly increased, but the Jun Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions fell more than expected.
The US Jun S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.6 to 55.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 54.6 and the strongest pace of expansion in 4 years.
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The US Jun Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions fell -9 to 4, weaker than the 8 expected.
The swaps markets are discounting the odds at 34% for a +25 bp rate cut hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) tumbled to a 1-year low today and is down -0.43%. The euro extended Monday's losses on negative carryover from dovish comments by ECB President Lagarde, which reduced the chances of additional ECB rate hikes, as she said she sees no need for a more forceful ECB response to the US-Iran war.
Today's Eurozone PMI reports were mixed for the euro, with the manufacturing PMI weaker than expected but the composite PMI stronger than expected. Losses in the euro are limited due to hawkish comments from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, who said ECB Officials face the risk that inflation will hover above their goal "for quite some time." The Eurozone Jun S&P manufacturing PMI fell -0.3 to 51.3, weaker than expectations of no change at 51.6. However, the Jun S&P composite PMI rose +1.0 to 49.5, stronger than expectations of 49.2.
Eurozone May new car registrations rose +3.2% y/y to 955,000 units, the fourth consecutive monthly increase.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said ECB Officials face the risk that inflation will hover above their goal "for quite some time." The markets are discounting a +9% chance for a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on July 23.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.02%. The yen is slightly higher today on signs of strength in Japan's economy, following the June S&P manufacturing and services PMIs, which expanded. Lower T-note yields today are also supportive of the yen.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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