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August WTI crude oil (CLQ26) today is down -3.02 (-4.13%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ26) is down -0.0842 (-2.95%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices are falling sharply today, with crude oil posting a 3.5-month low. Today's rally in the dollar index ($DXY) to a 13-month high is weighing on energy prices. Also, the resumption of crude supplies through the reopened Strait of Hormuz is easing global oil supply concerns and is undercutting crude prices. Today's weekly EIA inventory report was mixed for crude oil and products.
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Crude prices are sinking today as more tankers openly cross the Strait of Hormuz, boosting global crude supplies. Vessels are transiting the waterway with their satellite signals switched on, indicating growing confidence among shipowners. Also, the International Maritime Organization said it had received guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf.
The resumption of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is releasing more than 100 laden ships carrying oil from Middle Eastern countries other than Iran that have been stuck in the Persian Gulf, effectively boosting market stockpiles. The International Energy Agency estimated today that the United Ara Emirates is exporting oil at nearly 85% of pre-war levels.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) last Wednesday warned that the Iran war's impact on global oil demand will be much deeper than previously anticipated, saying world oil consumption will decline by -1.1 million bpd this year, a larger drop than a previous estimate of -420,000 bpd.
Goldman Sachs last Tuesday cut its Brent crude price forecast to $80 a barrel in Q4 of this year, down from $90, and said it expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, one month earlier than previously expected.
The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on June 9 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.72 million bpd from a May estimate of 13.65 million bpd.
Crude prices have support from the continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 4.32 million bpd in the first 10 days of June, the lowest in 20 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have struck three Russian fuel-producing facilities this month, following a record 17 attacks in May. US and EU sanctions on Russian oil.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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