Economists Cut India’s GDP Growth Forecast on Oil Price Shock
Economists Cut India’s GDP Growth Forecast on Oil Price Shock The spike in oil prices and slowing private investments have been weighing on India’s economic growth, which is now seen at 6.6% in the fiscal year to March 2027, a full percentage-point drop from the 7.7% GDP growth in the prior fiscal year, a Reuters poll of economistsshowedon Tuesday.
Nearly three dozen economists were surveyed between July 21 and 27 for the poll, in which some experts flagged weaker real economic activity than the headline figures have suggested in the past five months since the Middle East crisis erupted.
The Indian economy has relied on government spending while private investment has been weak amid the price shock from the spike in crude prices and its still-unknown full effect on India’s economy, current accounts, and government finances.
Weaker global growth could deter Indian firms from capacity and investment expansions, according to Upasana Chachra, chief India economist at Morgan Stanley.
“Even where policy support is in place, firms may defer large capex decisions if demand visibility weakens,” the economist told Reuters.
India’s economic growth for the 2026/2027 fiscal year could belower than previously expectedamid higher oil prices with the re-escalation of the Middle East war and the El Niño weather phenomenon, a senior official at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last week.
“The downside risks are probably twofold,” Ranil Salgado, the IMF’s resident representative for India and Bhutan, told Reuters in aninterview.
“One is that the war is already starting to expand again, and that has implications for oil prices,” the official said, adding that the other risk was El Niño, which could lead to a poor monsoon.
Earlier this month, the IMFcutits GDP growth forecast for India by 10 basis points, from 6.5% expected in April, to 6.4%, for the 2026/2027 fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, due to higher energy prices.
Escalating Protests in Libya Threaten Oil and Gas Supply Escalating Protests in Libya Threaten Oil and Gas Supply ING: Oil Prices Have Overshot To The Downside Russia’s Oil Windfall Vanishes as Urals Crashes to $42 a Barrel Iran Tightens Grip on Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Iran Sneaks 12 Million Barrels Past Renewed U.S.
Oil Blockade US Crude Oil Inventories Keep Falling As Hormuz Flows Slow To Start Why a Supply Crunch From Iran Could Send Oil Back Below $40 a Barrel Trump Signals Diplomatic Opening After Days of U.S.-Iran Strikes EIA: U.S.
Crude Inventories Post Another Major Draw U.S.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
Comments
Post a Comment