Hormuz Turns Oil Outlooks Into a Guessing Game
OPEC Oil Production Jumps, But Gulf Supply Is Still Far From Normal In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors.
Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers.
Hormuz Turns Oil Outlooks Into a Guessing Game - Energy market research organizations have started to recalibrate their global supply outlooks for 2026 and 2027, with the US Energy Information Administration seeing a much slower return of production than the IEA or Bloomberg’s NEF.- In their June monthly updates, the IEA and BNEF narrowed their 2026 deficits to 900,000 b/d and 500,000 b/d, respectively – both predicted a 2 million b/d supply shortfall a month earlier.- The EIA, on the other hand, stated that it doesn’t expect a Hormuz recovery to pre-war levels before early 2027, expecting global oil inventories to fall by an average of 7.6 million b/d in Q3 2026.- Whilst all market forecasters expect 2027 balances to be wildly skewed towards a supply glut, the discrepancies between short-term outlooks are staggering.- The monthly Reuters poll on oil price projections saw the 2026 Brent average fall back to $84.5 per barrel this month, down $6 per barrel compared to May, suggesting the analytical community is reactive and has no real read on what the US or Iran will do next.
Hormuz Traffic Rises, But the Shipping… In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors.
Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers.
Hormuz Turns Oil Outlooks Into a Guessing Game - Energy market research organizations havestartedto recalibrate their global supply outlooks for 2026 and 2027, with the US Energy Information Administration seeing a much slower return of production than the IEA or Bloomberg’s NEF.- In their June monthly updates, the IEA and BNEF narrowed their 2026 deficits to 900,000 b/d and 500,000 b/d, respectively – both predicted a 2 million b/d supply shortfall a month earlier.- The EIA, on the other hand, stated that it doesn’t expect a Hormuz recovery to pre-war levels before early 2027, expecting global oil inventories to fall by an average of 7.6 million b/d in Q3 2026.- Whilst all market forecasters expect 2027 balances to be wildly skewed towards a supply glut, the discrepancies between short-term outlooks are staggering.- The monthly Reuters poll on oil price projections saw the 2026 Brent average fall back to $84.5 per barrel this month, down $6 per barrel compared to May, suggesting the analytical community is reactive and has no real read on what the US or Iran will do next.
Hormuz Traffic Rises, But the Shipping Bottleneck Remains - Tanker transit data have become the mostimmediategauge of US-Iran diplomacy, with shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz rec.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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