IEA Cuts Russia's Oil Production Forecast Due to Ukrainian Attacks
IEA Cuts Russia's Oil Production Forecast Due to Ukrainian Attacks Colombia's declining natural gas production,… What I Cover My focus spans the global energy landscape and the technologies reshaping it, specifically focusing on oil and gas, renewables, and tech-driven market… Russia's oil production in 2026 and 2027 is set to be lower than previously expected, due to intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil marketreporton Friday.
Russia produced on average 9.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025.
The forecasts for this year and next, however, has been downgraded from previous projections as Ukraine continues to inflict damage on Russia's storage, refining, and transportation assets.
“Continued strikes on refineries, storage facilities and transport infrastructure underpin a weaker production outlook and we have accordingly cut our Russian supply outlook for this year and next, by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 bpd respectively, to average 8.8 million bpd over the forecast period,” the IEA said.
For 2026, the oil supply forecast was cut by 85,000 bpd to 8.9 million, and the 2027 forecast was revised down by nearly twice this year's downgrade, 150,000 bpd, to 8.8 million.
According to the IEA's estimates on OPEC+ supply, Russia's crude oil production increased to 8.86 million bpd in June from 8.74 million bpd in May.
However, the crude production in June was 910,000 bpd below Russia's implied OPEC+ target of 9.76 million bpd, the IEA's figures showed.
But Russia has increased its crude oil exports in recent months as the Ukrainian campaign to cripple its refineries has led to a domestic fuel crisis and a surge in shipments because domestic storage capacity is very limited.
Ukraine has now expanded its offensive to cripple supply in Russia by targeting fuel supply routes and vessels, alongside a persistent campaign to hit Russian refineries and force them out of operation.
Even Russian President Vladimir Putinacknowledgedtwo weeks ago there is a problem with fuel supply after regional authorities had tried to downplay the issue for weeks.
Two weeks ago, Putin said that followingthe temporary banon exports of gasoline and jet fuel, “We are considering a full ban on exports of diesel fuels.” Theban on diesel exportsis now a fact, as of Wednesday, amid the incessant Ukrainian campaign to slash fuel supply in Russia.
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| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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