India Is Becoming the World's Refining Swing Producer
Iraq Shuts Down Khor Mor Gas Field Amid Security Threats What I Cover Julianne Geiger is a veteran energy journalist and market analyst with more than a decade of experience covering the global oil and… India is emerging as the world's new "swing supplier" of refined fuels, rapidly redirecting diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline exports to markets facing the biggest shortages.
For years, the world's swing oil producer has been Saudi Arabia.
But while everyone has been watching who controls crude production, another swing producer has quietly been taking shape—one that deals in diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline instead of crude oil.
When Middle Eastern refineries were damaged during the Iran/US war, when Russian diesel exports collapsed under the weight of Ukrainian drone strikes, and when Europe found itself scrambling for replacement barrels yet again, Indian refiners did a little carpe diem and began sending more cargoes to whoever was paying the highest premium.
India is on track to export about 1.4 million barrels per day of refined products in July, according to Kpler.
That's roughly 50% more than in May and the highest monthly export volume since September.
Those barrels aren't headed to a single destination, either.
They’re headed to the highest bidder—i.e., wherever the shortage is.
Two months ago, more than 80% of India's diesel exports went to Africa.
This is because Europe had largely shut the door on fuels refined from Russian crude.
Africa, meanwhile, suddenly needed replacement supplies after the Hormuz crisis scrambled Middle Eastern trade flows.
Indian cargoes simply changed direction.Related: TotalEnergies Sees Stronger Q2 Profit as Refining and Oil Trading Surge Unlike many refining hubs, India doesn't depend on a single source of crude.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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