Oil Markets Ignore Mounting Risks at Their Own Peril
Jeff Currie: Illusion of Oil Abundance Is Gone Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities, attacks on critical infrastructure, and near-halted Hormuz tanker traffic are fueling expectations of higher oil prices.
US forces striking civilian infrastructure in Iran, Tehran attacking a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant, repeated attacks on tankers in the Hormuz Strait and the potential extension of maritime warfare towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – all this points towards oil prices continuing their upward movement in the days to come.
With Hormuz transits falling close to zero, it might even feel somewhat counter-intuitive to see ICE Brent trading around $86 per barrel, particularly as both Washington and Tehran seem to have given up on diplomacy.
China’s Oil Imports Fall Off a Cliff.Chinese crude purchasesplunged41% year-on-year in June to 7.12 million b/d, the lowest monthly reading since October 2016, as the Gulf war disrupted Middle Eastern supplies and weakening domestic demand curbed buying in the world’s largest oil-importing nation.
US Turns Back Iran-Bound Ships.The US military has redirected two commercial vessels since reinstating its naval blockade of Iranian ports, reviving anenforcementcampaign that turned back 140 ships and disabled nine others between April and June but failed to stop Iranian crude loadings entirely.
Drone Scare Briefly Halts Iraq Oil Loadings.Iraq brieflysuspendedcrude loadings after a suspected drone approached a tanker at Basra, although operations later resumed with no reported damage, while security threats forced the Khor Mor gas field offline, cutting 2.5 GW of power supply in Kurdistan.
India Bars Seafarers from Hormuz Voyages.India hasbannedthe deployment of its seafarers on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz after two nationals were killed in regional attacks, even as unions warn that more than 15,000 Indian crew members remain stranded west of the embattled waterway.
US LNG Returns to China—Sort Of.The first US LNGcargoto reach a Chinese terminal since February 2025 has arrived in Hainan, but its bonded storage status means the fuel can be held, traded or re-exported without clearing customs as Beijing’s 15% tariff keeps direct imports uneconomic.
IEA Gives Hormuz Weeks, Not Months.The global economy could face serious trouble unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens within weeks, IEA chief Fatih Birolwarned, with disrupted flows of oil, gas and fertilizer posing the greatest threat to import-dependent Asian economies such as Pakistan or India.
India Slams the Brakes on Fuel Exports.New Delhi nearlydoubledexport taxes on diesel and jet fuel to 15.5 and 14.5 rupees per litre, respectively, seeking to protect domestic supplies just as strong margins push shipments from Asia’s major fuel exporter toward their highest since September.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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