Oil’s Calm Is Over as Middle East Risks Return
IEA Chief Urges EU to Drop Arctic Drilling Ban Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes have revived the Middle East risk premium, lifting Brent above $76 as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slows and supply disruption fears return.
The return of the Middle Eastern geopolitical risk premium has lifted global oil prices by $4 per barrel this week, with ICE Brent set to settle above $76 per barrel.
Renewed US-Iran strikes pushed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz back toward a near-standstill as market concerns about continued supply disruptions outweighed President Trump’s (yet another) Friday attempt to pitch further talks with Tehran.
IEA Pushes Oil Surplus Call into 2027.The International Energy Agencypublishedits monthly oil report, adjusting its 2026 demand drop expectations to 1 million b/d and keeping a bullish view for this year as world oil supply is anticipated to fall by 3.7 million b/d amidst ongoing disruptions in the Middle East.
India Plows Ahead with SPR Expansion Plans.India’s state-controlled oil firm ONGC willbuilda 13-million-barrel crude reserve in Mangalore as New Delhi accelerates its buildout of stockpiling capacity after the Hormuz blockade exposed the vulnerability of its limited crude emergency inventories.
Iran Rushes to Export Remaining Oil.Iran issqueezingout as many oil tankers as possible, loading 11 million barrels of crude on Thursday, as US President Trump threatened to reimpose a blockade on Iranian outflows via the Gulf of Oman after the short-lived ceasefire deal started to disintegrate.Related: People Are Talking About Contango While Oil Markets Are Far From Recovered Gulf Tankers Make Hormuz U-Turn.Renewed attacks on shipstransitingthe Strait of Hormuz have prompted shippers to halt their movement out of the Gulf, with QatarEnergy’s Al Ghariya, Duhail and al Ruwais LNG carriers turning back from the critical waterway, sending insurance costs higher again.
Russia Bans Diesel Exports for a Month.Russia’s governmentannounceda one-month ban on diesel exports, seeking to lower runaway domestic prices on the back of Ukrainian drone strikes, wiping off some 0.5 million b/d of exports and sending European diesel cracks to a 15-year high of $60/barrel.
Chevron’s CPC Tanker Gets Droned.Ukraine’s army attacked the Yasa Polaris oil tanker chartered by US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) with a drone en route to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, prompting the ship to abandon its loading of Kazakh-origin CPC Blend and sail towards the Turkish coast.
China Opens Its Product Floodgates.Beijing hasliftedrefined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July for state refiners whilst also allowing private refiner ZPC to resume shipments after a four-month halt, with refiners now targeting roughly 3 million tonnes of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports this mon.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
Comments
Post a Comment