Super El Niño Could Push Colombia Into an Energy Crisis
Drone Strike Shuts Russia's Largest Refinery as Fuel Shortages Worsen As Oilprice’s South America correspondent, I cover Colombia (where I currently live), Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Guyana, Suriname and Uruguay.
I… Scientists predict 2026 willbring a devastating Super El Niño weather event, with rising temperatures and economically damaging droughts expected.
There are fears the climate pattern will hit Colombia especially hard, triggering severe droughts that lower water levels and sharply reduce hydroelectric power generation.
This will significantly pressure Colombia’s thermal power plants, already constrained by a natural gas shortage, while straining the electricity grid.
As a result, costly natural gas imports will rise, adding pressure toColombia’s fragile, fiscally strained economy.
Colombia first began importing natural gas in December 2016.
Since then, the volume ofliquified natural gas (LNG) shipments soared higher, despite rising prices.
For 2025, it is estimated that around 18% of all natural gas consumed in Colombia that year was imported.
Already for 2026, that number is ballooning out at a worrying rate.
While earlier calculations predicted that around a quarter of Colombia’s natural gas would come from overseas, that amount has blown out to over 32% and is expected to climb further.
As a result, natural gas prices across Colombia are soaring, with LNG imports significantly more expensive than domestically produced dry gas.
Between 2022 and 2024, prices surged by 36%, and despite attempts to mitigate the risks associated with rising natural gas imports, they continue to rise.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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