The Metals Selloff Is Creating New Winners And Losers
GE Vernova Raises Outlook As AI Power Boom Masks Wind Weakness The world's largest single-site aluminium… Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com.
Metals markets remain in a delicate tug-of-war, with structural deficits and massive AI-driven data center infrastructure buildout providing forward momentum, while global growth reassessments, high energy prices and the growing risk of interest rate increasesincreasingly challengethe bullish thesis.
Base metals prices have been highly volatile so far in the current year, with theLMEXhitting an all-time high in early June before plunging to a 3-month low a couple of weeks later after the collapse of the ceasefire deal between the U.S.
and Iran triggered a surge in oil prices and stoked fresh global inflation fears.
Leveraged investors are increasingly selling assets to raise cash as they expect central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer to fight inflation.
Meanwhile, metal-specific tariff uncertainty remains a key driver of volatility and inventory dislocations.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have issued the medium-term outlook for various base metals, saying that prices are likely to take their cue from macro dynamics, including shifts in risk appetite, Fed rate policy, US dollar moves and China economic activity.
LME copper priceshave largely remained range-bound over the past two months, trading sideways in a $13,000-14,000/t range after testing the $14,000/t all-time high in May.
StanChart has forecast that copper prices will remain elevated in H2 given U.S.
copper tariff review uncertainty, inventory dislocations (with inflows to the US incentivized by the Comex-LME premium), supply underperformance and recent China demand signals.
WhileChina’s economic growthin the second quarter clocked in at 4.3% Y/Y, below the target range of 4.5-5.0%, StanChart says there are several supportive signals from China for copper demand.
These include declining SHFE copper inventories, indicating tighter domestic supplies; a pickup in refined copper imports (with unwrought copper imports reaching 478 kt in June, up 4% year over year), suggesting stronger buying activity; and continued strength in the Yangshan copper import premium, a sign that Chinese buyers are willing to pay more for imported copper due to robust demand.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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