The Next Bull Market Could Be Built on Inventory Replenishment
China Tightens Its Grip on Namibia's Next Energy Boom Cyril Widdershoven is a senior maritime, energy, and geopolitical analyst and Senior Advisor at Blue Water Strategy, specialising in the strategic intersection of shipping, ports,… The Middle East is once again at the center of global energy markets due to the renewed military confrontation involving Iran.
Markets, however, should recognize that, unlike in previous crises, the world is entering this new phase with a significantly weaker strategic safety net.
At present, crude oil prices still respond to headlines surrounding military operations, shipping incidents, and diplomatic statements.
Still, it is now time that markets should no longer overlook the structural consequences of the past months.
The world’s emergency buffer has been substantially depleted.
Crude oil prices and supply during the first phase of the Iran crisis have been largely absorbed by the release of strategic petroleum reserves, rerouting exports, and (unexpected) weaker demand in Asia.
Right now, we are in a new and much more dangerous phase, in which everything will prove considerably more challenging, mainly because governments, oil companies, and refiners will increasingly have to rebuild depleted reserves while geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated.
This distinction between Phase I and II is critical.
For decades, geopolitical shocks were generally assessed through the lens of lost production or disrupted exports.
The main focus of analysts has been calculating how many barrels might disappear from the market, while also assessing whether Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or other producers are holding enough spare production capacity to compensate.
Even though this methodology remains relevant, it is no longer sufficient or fully applicable.
In the coming weeks and months, the most important question will be how many additional barrels will need to be purchased to restore strategic resilience.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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