Venezuela’s Oil Revival Faces a Critical Services Bottleneck
Oil Jumps Above $87 as Russia-Ukraine Black Sea Attacks Escalate Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence provider offering global databases, strategic advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers,… Venezuela's upstream industry has entered a new phase.
Following sweeping hydrocarbon reforms and broader geopolitical developments in early 2026, the conversation has shifted from whether the country can reopen its oil sector to whether it can successfully execute a meaningful production recovery.
The country's resource potential has never been in doubt.
The greater challenge now lies in converting policy momentum into sustained operational growth.
Rystad Energy estimates Venezuela's crude production could increase by approximately 17%, or around 194,000 barrels per day (bpd), between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2028.
Importantly, this growth is expected to come primarily from existing producing assets rather than large-scale new discoveries, highlighting that operational execution, not resource availability, will determine the pace of recovery.
Near-term production growth will be dominated by heavier crude grades.
Around three-quarters of Venezuela's output through 2028 is expected to come from heavy, extra-heavy crude and bitumen, with the Orinoco Oil Belt accounting for roughly 60% of total production.
This makes access to diluents, workover activity, infill drilling, and mature field management considerably more important than reserve additions over the next several years.
International operators are driving the recovery International oil companies (IOCs) are expected to contribute nearly two-thirds of Venezuela's forecast production increase through 2028.
Chevron remains the largest contributor, followed by Repsol, Eni, Maha Energy and Maurel & Prom.
Most of this growth is expected to come from expanding production at existing joint ventures, reflecting renewed investment following regulatory changes and sanctions relief rather than greenfield developments.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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