Yahoo Finance
Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) is struggling to stay above the psychologically important $60,000 level, and it's down 20% from its May 30 high.
Also in late May, its biggest corporate holder,Strategy, made its first sale of the coin since 2022, and, in the same period, the macro backdrop has soured further, adding salt to the wound of a difficult crypto bear market.
Is there any relief in sight over the next few months, or is more pain on the way? Let's look at the historical performance data to see what it reveals.
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Bitcoin's median return for June is essentially flat at a loss of 0.5%.
July, on the other hand, has typically been a strong one.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed nine of its 13 Julys green, with a median gain of 8.2%.
Thebear marketyears are most striking; July 2018 saw a pop of 21%, and July 2022 came with a gain of 17%.
In every prior instance in which the coin lost value for more than one month in a row in the lead-up, July's return was strongly positive -- though never enough to fully erase the prior losses.
And that's the most likely outcome this time around as well.
It's important to recognize that seasonal patterns like this one aren't something to bet the farm on.
Elements like the asset's fundamentals,spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF)flows, and upcoming catalysts tend to exhibit a larger impact on price.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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