Yahoo Finance
Forecasting is mostly a way of buying peace of mind.
You want a number for the worst case so you can decide how frightened to be, and once you have that number, you quietly stop thinking and start bracing for it.
It is how you decide whether to refinance, whether to take the job across town, whether the August road trip is still on.
Then late February arrived, and the worst case got a number.
When the United States and Israel struck Iran on Feb.
28, Tehran shut the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil and refined products.
The forecasts that followed were not subtle.
Trading desks talked about crude at $150 a barrel.
One tank, times 52 weeks, times two cars in the driveway.
Five months later, that number still has not shown up.
Brent crude futures peaked around $126 a barrel, comfortably below the 2008 record of $147, and averaged roughly $101 between the start of the war and June 11, before briefly retreating to prewar levels near $70 in early July, according toReuters.
The distance between that forecast and your actual receipt is one of the most underrated personal finance stories of the year.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
Comments
Post a Comment