Energy Affordability Trumps Climate in US Midterm Races
Citi Lifts Brent Outlook but Still Sees Oil Falling in 2027 With over two decades of journalistic experience working in newspapers, trade publications and as a mining reporter, Andrew Topf is a seasoned writer specializing in… Elevated US gasoline and electricity prices are seeping into the upcoming midterm elections in November.
Candidates are prioritizing consumer affordability over the environment, with Democrats linking gas price increases to President Trump’s foreign policy decisions.
Meanwhile, a debate over data center expansion and consumer rate impacts are forcing candidates to address infrastructure investment trade-offs.
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, US residential electricity prices rose 7% in 2025 versus 2024.
Ratepayers in 46 states experienced year-over-year increases, with those in 12 states and Washington, DC, seeing double-digit annual rate hikes,states S&P Global.
Factors contributing to high electricity prices include rising energy prices, infrastructure improvements, extreme weather, environmental mandates, and the energy-intensive development of data centers.
In the first quarter of 2026, Hawaii paid the most per kWh at 43.91 cents, followed by California and New York, at a respective 36.15 and 32.63 cents.
The national average was 18.70 cents.Related: ADNOC Reports 15 Vessel Attacks as Hormuz Risks Mount "This climate-versus-fossil fuels framing of past cycles has given way to affordability [and] electricity price framing for both parties," said Scott Segal, head of Bracewell's Policy Resolution Group.
The increased focus on affordability does not necessarily mean that progressive Democrats are lining up to bring natural gas-fired power plants to their states.
"But it does mean there's a growing recognition that very strict environmentalist or climate change messages are not being proffered by most Democratic politicians, at least in the runup to this midterm election," Segal said.
The war in Iran is driving oil prices higher and with them, US gasoline prices which are nearly $1/gallon more nationwide than a year ago, according to AAA.
In Alaska, where gas averaged $4.27 a gallon on July 28 — making it the fourth most expensive state — the incumbent Republican wants an increase in domestic oil production to counter the price impacts of war.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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