IEA: Global Oil Deficit To Hit 1.8 Million Bpd This Quarter
IEA: Global Oil Deficit To Hit 1.8 Million Bpd This Quarter What I Cover My focus spans the global energy landscape and the technologies reshaping it, specifically focusing on oil and gas, renewables, and tech-driven market… The IEA has slashed its 2026 global oil supply forecast, withoutput now expected to plunge 4.3 million barrels per daythis year as the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushes the market deeper into deficit.
The latest forecast is considerably worse than the 3.7-million-bpd decline the agency projected just last month and would leave global supply at 102.02 million bpd, its lowest forecast for 2026 yet.
Supply is now expected to fall 1.27 million bpd short of demand for the year, compared with an 860,000-bpd deficit implied by the IEA’s July forecasts.
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The squeeze will be even more severe this quarter.
The IEA now expects a 1.8-million-bpd deficit between July and September, a 1-million-bpd downward revision from July and the deepest quarterly oil deficit since the fourth quarter of 2021.
According to the IEA, Middle East oil flows briefly returned to pre-war levels in early July, with loadings reaching 20 million bpd, before falling to 12 million bpd later in the month.
Middle East production remained 8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels in July.
The IEA cited the Hormuz shutdown, the U.S.
blockade of Iranian exports, attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports among the forces keeping global supply below demand.
The supply shock is also destroying demand, with the IEA now expecting global oil consumption to contract by 1.6 million bpd this year, compared with a roughly 1-million-bpd decline forecast in July, as high prices and restricted supplies of refined fuels force consumers to cut consumption, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.
Refining is also becoming a major constraint, with global crude processing falling 5 million bpd year-over-year in July, whileRussian refinery runsremained near a 20-year low of 3.9 million bpd following Ukrainian drone attacks.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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