Mexico Has More Refining Capacity. So Why Are Fuel Imports Rising?
Backs X-Energy Reactor With Up to $2.15 Billion Natalia Katona is a freelance commodity analyst, based in the United Arab Emirates.
Mexico’s push for fuel self-sufficiency has run into a stubborn problem: Pemex has built and upgraded refining capacity faster than it has learned to operate it reliably.
The state oil company is being asked to send more crude into domestic refineries and less onto the export market, a strategy that looks increasingly sensible when refined products’ cracks are strong.
But the second quarter of 2026 showed the weakness of that model.
Mexican refineries processed only around 1 million b/d (58% of installed capacity), while fuel imports climbed sharply again.
Mexico has spent heavily to reduce its dependence on foreign gasoline and diesel, yet the effectiveness of that strategy still hinges on a refining system that repeatedly fails to sustain high runs.
Until early 2026, the numbers suggested the strategy had been working.
Clean-productimports, which averaged around 750,000 b/d in 2024, fell to roughly 520,000 b/d during the first five months of 2026 as refinery throughput recovered.
Runs climbed from just 785,000 b/d in late 2024 to around 1.2 million b/d between December and March 2026, helped by the ramp-up of Dos Bocas and Tula’s new coker.
Crude processing started falling in April and was back near 1.01 million b/d by June.
Product imports moved in the opposite direction, rising to around 620,000 b/d in May and 700,000 b/d in June.
The reversal exposed the central weakness in Mexico’s self-sufficiency drive: the country can reduce fuel imports when Pemex’s refineries run harder, but it has yet to show that they can do so consistently.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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