Norway Warns Oil and Gas Output Could Collapse After 2030
Treasury Expands Iran Sanctions Without Targeting Major Chinese Banks Jan-Thore is a Norwegian oil and gas expert with two decades of industry experience across a variety of roles.
For the past five years, he… Norway is producing oil and gas faster than the industry is finding new resources, increasing the risk of a steep decline after 2030, according to a newreportfrom the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.
The warning comes despite strong current activity.
Norwegian oil production reached its highest level since 2009 last year, while petroleum investment in 2026 is estimated at approximately $25 billion.
Much of today’s spending supports projects and discoveries made years ago.
Maintaining production beyond this decade will require more exploration, faster development of existing discoveries and continued investment in mature fields and infrastructure.
The problem is not that Norway is running out of petroleum.
It is that too much of the remaining resource base is either undiscovered or insufficiently mature to replace declining production from today’s largest fields.
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate expects production to remain close to current levels until the end of the 2020s before beginning to decline.
By 2035, total petroleum production is projected to fall to around 160 million standard cubic meters of oil equivalent.
That corresponds to approximately 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent annually, or 2.76 million boepd.
The Directorate has also developed three scenarios through 2050.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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