Oil Nears $100 as Trump’s ‘Economic D-Day’ Raises the Stakes
Ukrainian Drone Attack Hits Lukoil Refinery Deep in Russia Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… Hormuz traffic remains near a standstill as Trump’s ‘Economic D-Day’ campaign pushes Brent closer to $100.
Transits through the Strait of Hormuz have been in single digits the entire week, with Trump’s announcement of an ‘Economic D-Day’ campaign against Iran increasing geopolitical risk premia in the markets.
With ICE Brent at $94 per barrel, Asian LNG prices at $24 per MMBtu and VLCC freight rates at exorbitant levels, this week’s gradual upward creeping momentum towards $100-per-barrel oil should continue over the remaining days of August.
Trump Turns the Iran War Economic.US President Trumpthreatenedsweeping penalties and ‘tremendous consequences’ against countries trading with Iran, putting China and its imports of Iranian oil in the crosshairs as the White House announced the start of ‘economic warfare’ against Tehran.
Iraq Targets 10 Million—If OPEC and Export Routes Allow.Despite current production restrictions that seeoutputaround 2.9 million b/d, the new Iraqi government claimed it plans to reach output of 8–10 million b/d within 6 years, seeking a larger OPEC quota and developing alternative export corridors.
US Mops Up Half of Venezuela’s Oil Now.US refiners arereceivingmore than 500,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude as the country’s output approaches 1.25 million b/d, according to US Energy Under Secretary Kyle Haustveit, while sending over 100,000 b/d of naphtha to dilute its heavy barrels.
Baghdad Opens New Routes Around Hormuz.The Iraqi governmentapproved3-month contracts allowing local and international firms to market crude through multiple export outlets until the end of the year, seeking to protect state revenues by reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
Pirates Divert Tanker Toward Somalia.Six armed assailantsseizedcontrol of Sibu-1, an Eritrean-flagged tanker carrying products from the Gulf of Oman to Sudan, east of Yemen’s Mukalla, with resurfacing piracy risks marking another security threat to a region already strained by Houthi attacks.Related: Saudi Oil Exports from Mediterranean Soar with Shuttles North to Avoid Houthis Iranian Crude Loses Its China Discount.The US maritime blockade of Iran has restricted new crude shipments to Asia and drained floating storage,pushingsome Iranian barrels from a $3 discount to a $2 premium over Brent, with higher prices forcing Chinese teapots toward Brazilian and Iraqi alternatives.
Imminent Tengiz Peak Puts Pressure on Kazakhstan.US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM)expectsKazakhstan’s largest field, Tengiz, to plateau at 1 million b/d in 2027 before output falls to 500,000 b/d by 2035, nudging the state to resolve legal disputes blocking a potential $80 billion Kashagan expansion.Japan Swaps Hormuz Risk for Record US Energy Flows.Japan’simportsof US crude surg.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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