Pakistan Bets on Security and Trade as Ties with Iran Grow
Oil Markets Price In an Iran Deal That Does Not Exist Yet James D.
Durso is the Managing Director of Corsair LLC, a supply chain consultancy.
In 2013 to2015, he was the Chief Executive Officer of AKM… Pakistan has played a key role as amediatorin the U.S./Israel war on Iran.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, Chief of Army Staff and Chief of Defence Forces, have raised Pakistan’s profile so much thatForeign Affairsgushed“Pakistan Won the War in Iran.” Pakistan’s leaders are practical men with working relations with Washington and Tehran and are not performing good works to save their immortal souls, but because Pakistan and Iran are “neighbors forever” and they are looking to the post-war environment when demanding work will remain and opportunities will arise.
Relations between Pakistan and Iran are building and deepening, with greater emphasis on security, border management, and economic cooperation.
This holds even as military and security officials, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), holdgreater influencein Tehran following the 2025 and 2026 attacks by Israel and the U.S., the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the elevation of his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who has close links to the IRGC.
(Many civilian leaders such as Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are IRGC veterans.) Mojtaba Khamenei serves as the formal Supreme Leader, but he has maintained a low public profile due to injuries from the initial strikes and security concerns.
and Israel killedabout fiftypolitical, security, and military leaders in 2026, and decision-making has shifted toward a decentralized, collective, security-dominated structure centered on the IRGC and theSupreme National Security Council.
Key figures include IRGC Commander-in-Chief Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi and other experienced senior security and military officials who may have a higher risk tolerance than their predecessors, such as SNSC head Ali Larijani, a pragmatist (and IRGC veteran) who wasassassinatedby Israel.
This has reinforced a hardline, security-first approach to foreign policy and war-related decisions, though it has not produced a rejection of pragmatic outreach to neighbors.
The broader US-Iran conflict remains volatile.
A Pakistan-brokeredIslamabad Memorandum of Understandingin mid-June 2026 temporarily halted hostilities and addressed issues like the Strait of Hormuz, but the truce unraveled by mid-July amid renewed strikes and mutual accusations of violations.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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