The Gas Turbine Shortage Just Became AI’s Biggest Constraint
Iraq Wants to Double Oil Output—and Needs OPEC to Get Out of the Way What I Cover My focus spans the global energy landscape and the technologies reshaping it, specifically focusing on oil and gas, renewables, and tech-driven market… Order a heavy-duty gas turbine from GE Vernova today and it won’t arrive until 2031.
That’s the company’s actual production schedule, confirmed on its July 22 earnings call, and it’s the fact sitting underneath every AI data center power plan announced in the last two years.
It comes up far less often than the announcements do.
Goldman Sachs put hard numbers on the demand side in May.
data center power demandclimbs from 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 41 GW this year and 66 GW in 2027.
Year-over-year capacity additions accelerate from 8.5 GW actually realized last year to 13.6 GW scheduled for 2026 and 36.3 GW scheduled for 2027.
By then data centers would take 8.5% of total U.S.
The equipment meant to generate that power is on a completely different clock.
The Big Three Are Booked Solid Into the 2030s GE Vernova closed the second quarter with116 GW of gas power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements, up from 100 GW three months earlier and 83 GW at the end of 2025.
It expects at least 125 GW under contract by December.
CEO Scott Strazik told analysts the company istaking reservations for 2031 deliveryand should be more than halfway contracted for that year by the end of 2026.
Its production plan: roughly 20 GW annualized this quarter, 24 GW by 2028, and a push toward 30 GW by 2030.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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