This Megaproject Could Keep Brazil's Oil Boom Running Deep Into The 2030's
Aramco Deepens Asia Oil Discount Ahead of Possible Hormuz Deal Natalia Katona is a freelance commodity analyst, based in the United Arab Emirates.
BP’s Bumeranguediscoveryis more than another giant Brazilian oil find: it could become the project that keeps both BP’s upstream portfolio and Brazil’s production boom alive well into the 2030s.
With an estimated 2.5 billion barrels potentially recoverable and peak output that could reach 600,000 b/d, the ultra-deepwater development is large enough to offset declining production from BP’s existing assets and arrive just as Brazil’s current pre-salt giants begin moving off plateau.
Yet its promise comes with a formidable price tag.
Development costs could reach $32 billion, while potentially high CO2concentrations in the reservoir gas may require costly subsea separation and re-injection technology.
Bumerangue’s favourable fiscal terms could make those risksmanageable, but success will depend on BP controlling costs, finding the right development partner and proving that it can turn its largest discovery in decades into a commercially competitive project.
BP is targeting its total upstream production to be within the 2.3-2.5 million b/d range by 2030, but sustaining that level will require new projects capable of offsetting the natural decline of previous projects – and here is where the importance of Bumerangue turns out to be crucial.
Bumerangue is BP’s largest discovery since Shah Deniz in 1999 and the 6thlargest deepwater oil discovery ever made.
Final investment approval of Bumerangue is expected around 2028, first oil around 2032.
If development proceeds successfully, Bumerangue could postpone a material decline in BP’s production portfolio by 4-6 years, shifting it from around 2032 toward 2038.
The main uncertainty in Bumerangue stems from concerns about carbon dioxide in the project’s associated gas output.
If concentrations exceed 45%, as some experts suggest, BP may need advanced subsea separation and re-injection technology.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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