Ukraine’s Drone War Is Breaking Russia’s Fuel Grip on Central Asia
Russia Rebuilds Nuclear Workforce at Iran’s Bushehr Plant Eurasianet is an independent news organization that covers news from and about the South Caucasus and Central Asia, providing on-the-ground reporting and critical perspectives on… Central Asia’s energy market is experiencing a rapid shake-up thanks to Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure.
Russia stands to lose leverage and market share in the region over the long term as Central Asian states rush to diversify their fuel-supply options.
Repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have caused the Kremlin to limit exports of fuel products, including gasoline and jet fuel, to cope with deepening domestic shortages.
That, in turn, is prompting Central Asian states to scramble for alternate supplies to avoid a potential energy crisis in the fall and winter.
Until this year, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan depended on Russia for roughly 90 percent of fuel supplies.
Now, Russia can no longer be relied upon as an exporter.
For example, in late July, Russia agreed to deliver only about half the level needed to meet Kyrgyzstan’s demand for the rest of the year, or about 100,000 tons of petroleum products a month.
To help cover the shortfall, Bishkek has struck small supply deals withUzbekistanandKazakhstan, along withshipments from Belarus and China.
Kyrgyz officials are also seeking additional fuel fromTurkey and the EU.
In addition, the Kyrgyz government is developing a degree of fuel self-sufficiency, accelerating a project to build a refinery capable of producing about450,000 tons of petroleum productsper year, enough to meet nearly a quarter of the country’s annual demand.
The refinery could become operational as early asthe end of 2026.
Tajikistan in Julytripled fuel imports from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, totaling 34,000 tons, compared to June’s figures, Reuters reported.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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