Why Libya’s Next Oil Pipeline Could Be a Geopolitical Game-Changer
Russia Receives First Gasoline Cargo From India as Fuel Shortages Spread Cyril Widdershoven is a senior maritime, energy, and geopolitical analyst and Senior Advisor at Blue Water Strategy, specialising in the strategic intersection of shipping, ports,… The proposed Libya–Egypt crude oil pipeline has, surprisingly quickly, entered a phase in which Cairo and Tripoli are activelydiscussing it.
The pipeline, expected to be 800 kilometers long, will connect Tobruk in eastern Libya to Egypt’s port of Alexandria, allowing Libyan crude to flow directly into Egypt's Mediterranean refining system.
With an expected cost of over $1 billion, it represents a significant strategic opportunity.
However, neither the final capacity, financing structure, nor investment decision has yet been agreed.
This is important, as the total project is not yet fully financed.
The current analysis indicates that Egypt and Libya are discussing financing mechanisms, implementation arrangements, and final throughput.
Still, there are major hurdles on the road, as no international bank, sovereign wealth fund or IOC has publicly committed to it.
The current project costs should now be regarded as a preliminary cost indication rather than a bankable EPC estimate.
Ensuring geopolitical stability is crucial for project success and risk mitigation.
The project itself is not new, as both countries, Egypt and Libya, examined essentially the same corridor more than two decades ago.
In 2002, the two countries were already developing twin Tobruk–Alexandria oil and gas pipelines.
The Arab Company did this for Oil and Gas Lines, a 50:50 JV between Libya's NOC and Egypt's EGPC/GASCO.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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