Why a Record-Strength El Niño Still Might Not Save Europe's Gas Market
Oracle’s $165 Billion Data Center Plan Hits a Gas Pipeline Delay Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence provider offering global databases, strategic advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers,… Only an exceptionally strong El Niño will meaningfully ease Europe's LNG needs this winter, and forecasters currently rate that outcome as a long shot.
Rystad Energy's analysis indicates that European winter temperatures would need to be at least 2 degrees Celsius above the historical average before the region's LNG demand could fall to or below last winter's level.
Current forecasts point to a strong El Niño event forming through the winter of 2026-2027, potentially the most intense since 2015, however a strong El Niño event exceeding historical trends would be required to flip Europe's import math.
Given the uncertainty of weather forecasts, the statistically probable outcome is that Europe still needs meaningfully more LNG than it did last winter, even with El Niño working in its favor.
That matters because the stakes this winter are higher than usual.
Hostilities in the Middle East have pushed LNG prices up and cut deliveries from the Persian Gulf, a key production hub.
A milder winter would be a welcome offset.
The question is whether El Niño can deliver one large enough to count.
A strong El Niño looks likely, but strength is not certainty El Niño is a recurring warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, tracked through ocean temperature anomalies in the Pacific.
As of forecasts issued in July 2026, the probability of an El Niño event materializing over the next nine months stands at 100%, easing only slightly to 97% by March 2027.
The odds also favor a strong event: forecasts show an 81% probability that the relevant temperature index rises by at least 2.0 degrees Celsius, and a 97% probability it clears 1.5 degrees.
The higher the relative temperature index, the more likely we will see a higher magnitude temperature anomaly.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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