Why the U.S. Can't Easily Exit the Iran Conflict
Trump's Iran Reversal Sends European Gas Prices Tumbling Kurt Cobb is a freelance writer and communications consultant who writes frequently about energy and environment.
His work has also appeared in The Christian Science… A monkey trap offers a reward such as food that, when grasped, makes the hand too large to withdraw from the hole in the trap giving access to that food.
Unless the monkey lets go, the animal is stuck.
Now, the obvious choice when danger arrives is to simply let go and run.
But, supposedly, monkeys won't let go even as human hunters approach and then club them to death.
The war with Iran has become the Trump administration's monkey trap; potential victory over Iran is the prize in the trap.
Strangely, the only prize now available is something that was already available before the war started: freedom of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
But now that Iran has seized control of the strait and effectively closed it to unfriendly traffic, that seizure has become the most important leverage Iran has over the United States and its allies.
As long as the war continues, Iran says there will be no shipments of oil, natural gas, petrochemicals, helium, fertilizers and other key commodities except for its own and a few select shipments from friends of the regime.
Since these shipments make up substantial fractions of the world's supplies, closure of the strait has sent prices of these products skyward, with shortages already appearing in many places across the globe.
If the Trump administration were to let go and simply withdraw from the conflict, the move would be seen as an acknowledgment of defeat.
That is something that the administration and President Donald Trump, in particular, are eager to avoid.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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