Yahoo Finance
The cool news is that the latest data from theFederal Reserve's preferredinflationindicator came in lower than consensus in June, primarily due to a drop in energy prices.
The not-so-cool news? During his second Fed Day as Chairman of the U.S.
central bank,Kevin Warshhemmed and hawed over whether the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index would continue to serve that role.
And didn't offer a hint as to what the replacement might be.
As I reported,this lack of transparent strategy really ticked offWall Street-- more than theFederal Open Market Committee's decisive 9-3 voteto hold short-term benchmark interest rates steady July 29.
Bonds sold off sharply with the30-year Treasury hitting 5.22%.
Within hours of Warsh's post-meeting press conference, J.P.
Morgan abruptly shifted its forecast for the Fed's interest-rate outlook to ahawkishone.
The headline on the note? "Talk is Cheap." J.P.
Economist Michael Feroli said the Fedwould raise interest rates by 25 basis pointsin December instead of the second half of 2027.
The note to clients expects the Fed to continue to hold the Federal Funds Rate at3.75%-4.00%after the December hike but added that the risk of a September rate increase is real.
Feroli's research update said that Warsh's ambiguous signaling raises concerns about the central bank's inflation strategy.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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