5 Energy Stocks Positioned for a Prolonged Iran War
VLCC Rates Hit Record $1.27 Million a Day as Oman Transfer Capacity Maxes Out Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com.
For the first time since the Iran war began, JPMorgan says it no longer has a clear baseline for how the oil market gets out of it.
The bank had previously worked on the assumption that rising oil prices and the economic damage they caused would eventually put limits on how far the conflict could go.
Six months into the war,JPMorgansays many of those thresholds have already been crossed without producing a clear exit.
Roughly 10 million barrels per day of oil supply has been disrupted, while the bank puts Brent’s September fair value at around $90 per barrel, compared with market prices around $106.
For oil and gas companies, the war has created several different profit channels, from high crude prices and extreme refining margins, to the loss of Qatari LNG and trading volatility.
The companies with the greatest commodity exposure are not necessarily the ones benefiting most once their own Middle East assets are taken into account.
A producer selling oil above $100 per barrel gains little from the price spike if a large share of its own production is disrupted.
And LNG exporters outside the region are benefiting from a supply problem beyond Hormuz, with Iranian attacks knocking out 17% ofQatar’s LNG capacity,with repairs to two damaged LNG trains expected to take as long as three years.
QatarEnergy is now seeking2-3 million tonnes of LNG annuallyfrom outside suppliers through 2031, including from U.S.
Refinersare making money from another corner of the disruption.
diesel refining margins hit a record$118.62 per barrelon September 14, while U.S.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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