A Forgotten Soviet Waterway Could Give China a New Arctic Trade Route
Chevron to Double Venezuela Rig Count in $7 Billion Oil Push Eurasianet is an independent news organization that covers news from and about the South Caucasus and Central Asia, providing on-the-ground reporting and critical perspectives on… China, Russia and Kazakhstan are mulling the development of a new northern trade route which would use the Irtysh and Ob rivers to open access for the export of Chinese goods from Russian Arctic ports at the base of the Yamal Peninsula.
Trade along the Ob-Irtysh system reached anestimated peakof 9 million tons annually in the 1970s before crashing following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.
Kazakhstan and Russia in recent years have floated the idea of reviving the route, but the concept gained momentum only recently, after Chinasignaledits interest.
The plan offers potential economic and geopolitical advantages for all involved.
But a variety of factors, some related to global warming, others to competing needs for the rivers’ waters, create substantial obstacles to the trade route’s realization.
According to some estimates, tens of billions of dollars in infrastructure investments will be needed to make the route operational.
In addition, making all the required improvements will take a lengthy amount of time, during which global economic and geopolitical conditions could change in ways that diminish the attractiveness of an Ob-Irtysh outlet to northern seas.
Kazakhstan, a lynchpin in the Ob-Irtysh system,publishedan ambitious development plan in 2024 for its section of the river. The plan aims to boost river cargo volume from near zero to 2.5 million tons per year by 2028, build dock and loading facilities capable of handling 4 million tons annually and develop passenger service to ferry up to 700,000 individuals per year to boost tourism.
Some Kazakh experts believe the time and money needed to realize the plan will pay off.
“Billions can be earned by transporting cargo along our own section of the Irtysh alone,” the official news agency Kazinform quoted economist Askat Dyusembayev as saying.
Theexigencies of the warin Ukraine have added a sense of urgency to Russia’sbackingfor the Ob-Irtysh project.
An Irtysh-Ob bypass to the northern seas could prove a novel way for the Kremlin to circumvent Western sanctions to secure the dual-use goods and other supplies needed to keep its war effort going, as well as obtain civilian goods to keep a lid on popular discontent.
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