Can Iraq Really Replace Saudi Arabia As The Middle East’s Top Oil Producer?
American and African Crudes Soar as China's Oil Imports Rebound ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips remain reluctant… Trump's 65-billion-barrel Venezuela oil deal… Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com.
The global power of most Middle Eastern countries remains dependent on their oil and/or gas output, so it is little wonder they try to maximise this, either by pushing production higher or by pretending it is higher, or by forecasting that it will be higher at some point soon.
Iraq had historically fallen into the last of these categories -- having periodically promised large increases in oil production that never materialised.
Saudi Arabia, the Middle East’s top oil producer, meanwhile, has fallen into the first category -- alluding to oil production ‘capacity’ of 11, 12, or 13 million barrels per day (bpd) at varying times.
The facts for Iraq are that its crude oil production averaged 2.38 million bpd from 1973 until 2026.
Before the blockade of the world’s major oil transit route began in February, Iraq was producing 4.14 million bpd.
Meanwhile, for Saudi Arabia, it has never produced anywhere near its claimed ‘capacity’ for any sustained period that would warrant that definition according to the U.S.
Instead, the Kingdom’s crude oil production averaged 8.29 million bpd from 1973 until 2026.
Prior to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, it was producing 10.1 million bpd.
That said, the recent announcement by Iraq’s new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi that the country plans to raise oil production to between 8 million and 10 million barrels per day within six years may finally be proven correct for three key reasons and may even allow it to surpass Saudi Arabia as the top oil producer in the region.Related: Oil Prices Climb After U.S.
Strikes Three Iranian Tankers and Iran Vows Revenge First, the country has always had sufficient oil reserves to reach that figure, if handled properly.
Officially, according to EIA figures, Iraq holds a very conservatively estimated 145 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves (nearly 18% of the Middle East’s total, and around 9% of the world’s).
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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