Europe’s Gas Forecasts Are Not an Energy Strategy
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982 Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia… Leon Stille has a background in energy sciences (MSc and BSc) and is pursuing a PhD in energy policy.
He currently runs his own company,… Energy models have an unusual talent.
However chaotic the present may be, the future almost always becomes remarkably calm.
And natural gas prices gradually return to a smooth, comfortable line.
But Europe has now spent five years discovering how little it actually knows about future gas prices.
The latest Dutch Climate and Energy Outlook illustrates the problem.
TheKEV 2026uses a central wholesale gas-price path that settles at roughly €0.20–€0.25 per cubic metre through much of the 2030s.
In late September 2026, Dutch TTF gas was trading at approximately €72 per megawatt-hour, equivalent to around €0.70 per cubic metre—roughly three times the model’s long-term central assumption.
That does not prove the model will be wrong in 2030.
Prices could fall sharply if LNG supply expands, demand weakens and geopolitical tensions ease.
It proves something more important: nobody knows.
A Model Assumption Is Not a Price Prediction Energy models need a gas price.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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